By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka aims to defend title against in-form Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina
- Top Seeds: Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina
- British Interest: Katie Boulter [26], Emma Raducanu [WC]
MADRID, SPAIN – Aryna Sabalenka aims to overcome a poor run of form as she bids to defend her Madrid title against the in-form Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina.
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[1] Iga Swiatek
Best Result: Final (2023)
After failing to make it a hat-trick of wins in Stuttgart, Swiatek will be more motivated than ever before to claim her first Madrid title.
Swiatek’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Xiyu Wang | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Sorana Cirstea [27] | H2H: Swiatek leads 3-0
- R4: Elina Svitolina [16] | H2H: Swiatek leads 2-1
- QF: Maria Sakkari [5] | H2H: Swiatek leads 3-3
- SF: Coco Gauff [3] | H2H: Swiatek leads 9-1
- F: Aryna Sabalenka [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-3
It’s a very comfortable opening week for Swiatek although an in-form Sorana Cirstea might be the Pole’s first real test of the tournament. The world number one will then face a tricky last 16 tie against Victoria Azarenka or Elina Svitolina while Maria Sakkari will like her chances of beating the Pole in the quarter-finals. Ultimately Swiatek will fancy her chances of winning her first Madrid title as this draw allows the Pole to conserve as much energy as possible before the final.
[2] Aryna Sabalenka
Best Result: Champion (2021, 2023)
Sabalenka’s poor run of form continued in Stuttgart and now the world number two will look to regain momentum in Madrid as she bids for a third title in the Spanish capital.
Sabalenka’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Magda Linette | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Katie Boulter [26] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 3-0
- R4: Danielle Collins [13] | H2H: Sabalenka lead 4-0
- QF: Marketa Vondrousova [7] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-3
- SF: Elena Rybakina [4] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 5-3
- F: Iga Swiatek [1] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-3
If Swiatek’s draw is comfortable then Sabalenka’s is anything but comfortable as her potential first opponent is Magda Linette, who enters Madrid with form having reached the final at the WTA event in Rouen. After facing Katie Boulter in the third round, Sabalenka will then face a highly motivated Danielle Collins before taking on Marketa Vondrousova with Sabalenka losing to Vondrousova in Stuttgart last week. Although Sabalenka has good history in Madrid, the world number two’s form suggests an early exit here although you can never underestimate this Grand Slam champion.
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[3] Coco Gauff
Best Result: R3 (2022)
Gauff is aiming for a big clay court swing as she has proven in the past that she has the game to win some big titles on the surface.
Gauff’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Arantxa Rus | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Dayana Yastremska [29] | H2H: First Meeting
- R4: Liudmila Samsonova [15] | H2H: Gauff leads 3-0
- QF: Ons Jabeur [8] | H2H: Gauff leads 4-2
- SF: Iga Swiatek [1] | H2H: Swiatek leads 9-1
- F: Aryna Sabalenka [2] | H2H: Gauff leads 4-3
Gauff will be starting against some big-hitters with potentially former Roland Garros semi-finalist Amanda Anisimova awaiting in the third round. A tough fourth round clash against either Liudmila Samsonova, Madison Keys or Naomi Osaka could be Gauff’s first real test before a quarter-final against Ons Jabeur or Jelena Ostapenko. Overall it will be a huge task for Gauff to reach the latter stages of Madrid although she’s in arguably the best moment of her career in comparison with previous clay court seasons.
[4] Elena Rybakina
Best Result: R3 (2022)
Rybakina enters Madrid in good form having won the title in Stuttgart and will fancy her chances for more clay court success in Spain.
Rybakina’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Lucia Bronzetti | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Marta Kostyuk [25] | H2H: Rybakina leads 2-1
- R4: Ekaterina Alexandrova [14] | H2H: Alexandrova leads 3-1
- QF: Qinwen Zheng [6] | H2H: Rybakina leads 2-0
- SF: Aryna Sabalenka [2] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 5-3
- F: Iga Swiatek [1] | H2H: Rybakina leads 4-2
Rybakina has a fairly routine first couple of rounds with a Stuttgart final rematch against Marta Kostyuk awaiting in the third round. A tricky last 16 match against Ekaterina Alexandrova could await before a likely quarter-final against either Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova or Daria Kasatkina. Overall Rybakina has a good chance to record her best performance in Madrid although doubts remain as to whether she can keep up her good form over the entire tournament given the conditions and opposition.
Madrid starts on Wednesday 24th of April and concludes on Sunday 5th of May.
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