By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Madison Keys [5]
- Iga Swiatek [2] v Mirra Andreeva [9]
INDIAN WELLS, USA – Aryna Sabalenka targets Australian Open revenge as she takes on Madison Keys for a place in the Indian Wells final.
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Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Madison Keys [5] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-2
After a turbulent last couple of tournaments, Aryna Sabalenka is back to her best as she is yet to drop a set on her way to the Indian Wells semi-finals. The world number one always saves her best tennis for the biggest tournaments and now Sabalenka will extend her lead at the top of the world rankings whatever happens in California. Standing in Sabalenka’s way of the final is Australian Open champion Madison Keys as the American extender her winning streak to 16 matches with victory over Belinda Bencic.
H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Madison Keys [5] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-2 |
| Indian Wells 2025 | Indian Wells, USA |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: $333,125 |
| Fourth on Stadium One (Not before 01:00 GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
After an underwhelming Middle East swing for Sabalenka, the world number one is back to her best after cruising to the final four at Indian Wells.
Whatever Sabalenka will extend her lead at the top of the world rankings but now targets a first Indian Wells title.
Revenge is on Sabalenka’s mind as she takes on Keys who pipped the world number one to the Australian Open title.
Keys has continued her incredible start to the season at Indian Wells as she has extended her winning streak to 16 matches.
Ahead of the semi-final Sabalenka reflected on her Australian Open heartbreak against Keys as the duo meet for a seventh time.
“I’d say that the final in Australia was really heartbroken,” Sabalenka told the Indian Wells website.
“It was very difficult to recover after that one… I was trying to understand. I had to kind of step back and start everything over again.”
Meanwhile Keys spoke about her winning streak and whether she has ever felt this confident on a tennis court.
“That’s probably something that you’ll never really forget,” Keys said about her winning streak to the WTA website.
“I don’t think I’ve ever had a streak this long, but obviously would like for it to go even further. Probably not. I think the reality of winning as many matches as I have this early in a season hasn’t ever really happened for me, so I think there is definitely a lot of just kind of confidence from all those wins under your belt.
“I think it kind of gives me the confidence to, in really tight situations, just continue to go for whatever I want to.”
Sabalenka will look to be more aggressive on the backhand side as she will need to vary up her game and be unpredictable in this match.
Meanwhile Keys will take the ball early on the forehand in order to rush Sabalenka’s game from the baseline.
This should be a cracking match with both players playing with confidence and freedom as a place in the final awaits.
There is no favourite in this match but Sabalenka will enter this match slightly fresher which could give her an edge.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
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Iga Swiatek [2] v Mirra Andreeva [9] | H2H: Tied at 1-1
Iga Swiatek earned her Olympic revenge over Qinwen Zheng as the Pole continued her Indian Wells title defence. The world number two is bidding for a first title this season and is in impressive form as she is yet to drop a set this tournament. Another player who is yet to drop a set at Indian Wells is Swiatek’s semi-final opponent Mirra Andreeva who is on a ten match winning streak which included victory over the Pole in Dubai.
H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Iga Swiatek [2] v Mirra Andreeva [9] | H2H: Tied at 1-1 |
| Indian Wells 2025 | Indian Wells, USA |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: $333,125 |
| Third on Stadium One (Not before 23:00 GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
Swiatek has found her dominant level at Indian Wells as she bids to defend her title and has yet to drop a set in California so far.
Now the Pole aims to break her title drought in 2025 and claim her first title of the season by once again being victorious at tennis paradise.
In order for Swiatek to win the title she will need to overcome a player that she has lost to recently in the form of Andreeva.
The 17 year-old superstar has now won ten consecutive matches as she bids for a second consecutive WTA 1000 title.
After her win over Zheng, Swiatek spoke about conditions and gaining revenge over the Chinese number one.
“If I’m gonna adjust well, then I’m gonna be able to use it to my advantage in terms of, I don’t know, playing more spinny with the wind so it bounces even higher,” Swiatek told the WTA website.
“Well, obviously [coach] Wim analyzed this match. And we kind of spoke about it a bit, but besides the fact that this was the only match that I lost against Qinwen and I wanted to learn from it, it didn’t really cross my mind that much, because I knew that this is on hard court and I knew what I did wrong on the Olympics.”
Meanwhile Andreeva spoke about playing Swiatek again and whether the last meeting in Dubai will play a factor here.
“Of course it’s always nice to beat a top player — it was my first win over [Swiatek],” Andreeva said to the WTA website.
“It doesn’t give me any benefit to our match tomorrow, because what happened, happened, and the past is in the past. Tomorrow is going to be a new day, new match, new conditions, new country. Everything is different.
“I’m going to try my best to prepare in the best way for our match. And I’m sure that the match is going to be great, because our head-to-head is 1-all. I think it’s going to be an entertaining match, and we’re just going to see who is going to be better tomorrow.”
Swiatek will look to be aggressive but also use variety to mix up the tempo of the rallies with the Pole’s service games being critical to her chances of winning this match.
Andreeva will look to be aggressive on the backhand return and take away Swiatek’s options especially on the backhand side.
This will be a very entertaining match with Swiatek’s freshness and energy proving to be a potential factor in who wins this match.
Prediction: Swiatek in three sets.
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