By Ros Satar
- Katie Boulter [25] v Elena Rybakina [7]
- H2H: Rybakina leads 1-0
INDIAN WELLS, USA – Katie Boulter fought back admirably after losing a tough tie-break set in her second-round match and faces 2023 champion Elena Rybakina.
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Katie Boulter [25] v Elena Rybakina [7] | H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Katie Boulter [25] v Elena Rybakina [7] | H2H: First Meeting |
| WTA Indian Wells | USA |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: $60,400 |
| First on Stadium 7 at 11am (7pm GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
The long break from the tour almost upended Katie Boulter, who came out the wrong side of a tie-break first set but fought back to advance to the third round with her first win in Palm Springs. Next up for her is Elena Rybakina, who makes her own return for the first time since winning the tournament in 2023.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Hard – 2025)
| H2H: | Katie Boulter (WR 38) | Elena Rybakina (WR 7) |
| Tournament Previous Best | R1 (2022, 2024) | Title (2023) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 32.7 | 37.1 |
| Return Points Won % | 41.2 | 44.2 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 63.6 | 40.9 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60.9 | 61.4 |
| Overall Service Points Won % | 61.0 | 61.8 |
Despite two months off the tour, Boulter finds herself not far behind Rybakina in terms of the year’s hard court starts, which should give her some confidence that she can go toe-to-toe with one of the tour’s most consistent players.
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Playing Styles & Prediction
Boulter has not only worked on her game to improve her variety, but she has really impressed with her ability to battle through some tough matches. She will need that resilience because Rybakina has come back from her own illness and coaching issues to deliver some solid performances already this year.
Boulter needs to continue to measure herself against the top players on tour and is 3-13 against top 10 players. Although they are close in stats, the British No. 1 is still very much the underdog.
Both have strong serves and solid baseline play so if Boulter can mix things up and come in more, she could give herself a chance but faces a tall order to get the back-to-back win.
Prediction: Rybakina in three sets.
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