By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Jessica Pegula [5]
- Coco Gauff [3] v Jasmine Paolini [8]
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA – Jessica Pegula will aim to recreate her win over Aryna Sabalenka in Wuhan when the pair meet at the WTA Finals.
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Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Jessica Pegula [5] H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Jessica Pegula [5] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 8-3 |
| WTA Finals 2025 | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Indoor Hard | Prize Money: $355,000 |
| Third on Center Court (Not before 15:30 GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
The main match of day four of the WTA Finals will see world number one Aryna Sabalenka take on Jessica Pegula as they continue their intense on-court rivalry.
It was business for usual for Sabalenka in the opening match of the tournament and the former finalist has her sights set on the title in Riyadh. After an incredible year, which culminated in ending the year as world number one, Sabalenka will be hoping to top it off by continuing to prove she is the best player in the world. In the big matches, Sabalenka’s temperament and emotional control has often been questioned and in Saudi Arabia the world number one will be hoping to make steps towards improving that heading into 2026.
A continuation of an intense rivalry awaits Sabalenka as she takes on Pegula who produced a stunning opening round robin win. The American has had a turbulent year but has often raised her level when it has mattered most. Proof of this is her two recent meetings against Sabalenka where she beat the world number one in Wuhan and was close to doing the same at the US Open. Now, Pegula will hope her progress against the best players continues to develop as the American looks to book a place in the semi-finals.
Sabalenka will aim to be aggressive on serve and use the forehand to pin Pegula behind the baseline. The American will look to be proactive on return and test Sabalenka’s consistency on the second serve. This will be a tight contest with this having the potential to be the best match of the tournament. In the end, Sabalenka will have enough quality in the big points to edge to victory.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
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Coco Gauff [3] v Jasmine Paolini [8] H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Coco Gauff [3] v Jasmine Paolini [8] | H2H: Tied at 3-3 |
| WTA Finals 2025 | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Indoor Hard | Prize Money: $355,000 |
| Second on Center Court (Not before 14:00 GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
The first match of the day will see defending champion Coco Gauff take on Jasmine Paolini in what will be their fifth meeting this season.
It was a disappointing result for Gauff as she lost to former doubles partner Pegula in the opening match of the tournament. The American has been fairly underwhelming since her triumph at Roland Garros as she has produced some erratic and inconsistent performances with her attacking qualities being nullified. However, it is resilience and Gauff’s defensive work rate that has won her two Grand Slam titles as well as last year’s WTA Finals crown. This will be the key to Gauff’s progress in Saudi Arabia as she aims to improve her performances and keep her chances of semi-final progress alive.
Next for Gauff’s is one of her biggest rivals in the form of Paolini with the Italian beating Gauff on three occasions this season. The Italian’s biggest triumph over Gauff was in the Rome final to win a big WTA 1000 title on home soil and will look to take inspiration from that contest heading into this match. A first match loss to Sabalenka won’t demotivate the feisty Italian who will take the match to Gauff as she looks to disrupt tennis’ elite and score a massive win in her bid to reach the semi-finals in Saudi Arabia.
It will be a tough match for Gauff who will need to be patient and aggressive in order to expose Paolini’s defensive flaws. Meanwhile, Paolini will use the backhand to force Gauff out of position and will need to be consistently aggressive on serve. This will be a tight contest but Gauff will be motivated than ever before to get a win over Paolini as she looks to keep her title defence alive.
Prediction: Gauff in three sets.
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