By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka aims to overcome Indian Wells final heartbreak in a stacked field which sees Danielle Collins defend her title.
- Top Seeds: Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula
- British Interest: Katie Boulter, Emma Raducanu
MIAMI, USA – Aryna Sabalenka aims to overcome Indian Wells final heartbreak in a stacked field in Miami which sees Danielle Collins defend her title.
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[1] Aryna Sabalenka
Best Result: Quarter-Final (2021, 2023)
A much better tournament for Sabalenka in Indian Wells but the world number one enters Miami with motivation after just falling short of the title in California.
Sabalenka’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Viktoriya Tomova | H2H: Tomova leads 1-0
- R3: Magdalena Frech [29] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 1-0
- R4: Danielle Collins [14] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 6-0
- QF: Elena Rybakina [7] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 6-4
- SF: Coco Gauff [3] | H2H: Gauff leads 5-4
- F: Iga Swiatek [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 8-4
The world number one has a similar draw to Indian Wells although the argument could be made that there are a lot of out of form players in her section of the draw. A tough fourth round match is expected against either Donna Vekic or defending champion Danielle Collins. In the quarter-finals Sabalenka could meet Elena Rybakina for the 11th time in her career although it wouldn’t be too surprising if Rybakina doesn’t make it that far. Overall, Sabalenka will be happy with her half of the draw and will fancy her chances of reaching a second consecutive WTA 1000 final.
[2] Iga Swiatek
Best Result: Champion (2022)
Emotions got the better of Swiatek in her title defence bid but the Pole will hope to get her energy back as she targets a second title in Miami.
Swiatek’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Caroline Garcia | H2H: Swiatek leads 5-1
- R3: Elise Mertens [27] | H2H: Swiatek leads 1-0
- R4: Karolina Muchova [15] | H2H: Swiatek leads 4-1
- QF: Madison Keys [5] | H2H: Swiatek leads 4-2
- SF: Jessica Pegula [4] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-4
- F: Aryna Sabalenka [1] | H2H: Swiatek leads 8-4
The Pole will likely face Caroline Garcia for a second consecutive tournament before facing one of Elise Mertens, Peyton Stearns or Katie Boulter in the third round. A tricky fourth round could await with Karolina Muchova, Elina Svitolina or the in-form Belinda Bencic awaiting. A tasty quarter-final could await against Madison Keys in a rematch from their Australian Open epic before potentially facing Mirra Andreeva once again. This is a very tough draw for Swiatek and with the Pole lacking emotional control in big moments, it’s hard to see her reaching the final in Florida. However, if Swiatek does go all the way in Miami then she will have a huge psychological advantage heading into the clay court season.
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[3] Coco Gauff
Best Result: R4 (2022, 2024)
Another disappointing result for Gauff at Indian Wells means that the American has a crucial week ahead in order to improve her confidence heading into the next couple of months.
Gauff’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Sofia Kenin | H2H: Tied at 2-2
- R3: Maria Sakkari [28] | H2H: Sakkari leads 5-4
- R4: Beatriz Haddad Maia [13] | H2H: First Meeting
- QF: Jasmine Paolini [6] | H2H: Gauff leads 2-0
- SF: Aryna Sabalenka [1] | H2H: Gauff leads 5-4
- F: Iga Swiatek [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 11-3
A very tough opening round awaits Gauff in the form of Sofia Kenin or two-time former champion Petra Kvitova. After that it is a potential third round match against Maria Sakkari before the out of sorts Beatriz Haddad Maia could await in the last 16. In the quarter-finals either Daria Kasatkina or Jasmine Paolini will look to test Gauff in what is a suitable draw for the American. Should Gauff win her opening match, then the third seed should reach the semi-finals and anything less than that would be a huge confidence blow for the American.
[4] Jessica Pegula
Best Result: Semi-Final (2022, 2023)
Pegula will aim to bounce back from a disappointing run at Indian Wells with a deep run at one of her favourite tournaments of the season.
Pegula’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Ajla Tomljanovic | H2H: Tied at 2-2
- R3: Anna Kalinskaya [32] | H2H: Pegula leads 2-0
- R4: Diana Shnaider [13] | H2H: Pegula leads 2-0
- QF: Emma Navarro [8] | H2H: Pegula leads 1-0
- SF: Iga Swiatek [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-4
- F: Aryna Sabalenka [1] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 6-2
Pegula will have a tough opening round contest against Ajla Tomljanovic while Diana Shnaider or Marta Kostyuk could await in the fourth round. A projected quarter-final against Emma Navarro would be entertaining but Indian Wells champion Andreeva is more likely to happen. This is a big tournament for Pegula and if she can replicate her form from previous years than she has a chance of reaching the latter stages once again.
Miami begins on the 18th of March and finishes on the 30th of March.
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