By Tony Fairbairn
- Iga Swiatek [2] v Coco Gauff [4]
- Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Marta Kostyuk [17]
MADRID, SPAIN – Iga Swiatek is set to renew her rivalry with Coco Gauff in a blockbuster semi-final at the Mutua Madrid Open.
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Iga Swiatek [2] v Coco Gauff [4] | H2H: Swiatek leads 11-3
After a disastrous opening set, Iga Swiatek bounce back well to earn Australian Open revenge over Madison Keys. It means the Pole is in good form and is building confidence as she aims to defend her Madrid title and win her first title of the season in what has been an underwhelming season by her high standards. Next up for Swiatek is Coco Gauff with the American producing an impressive week so far defeating Belinda Bencic and Mirra Andreeva on her way to the last four.
H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Iga Swiatek [2] v Coco Gauff [4] | H2H: Swiatek leads 11-3 |
| Madrid 2025 | Madrid, Spain |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €291,040 |
| Second on Manolo Santana Stadium (Not before 15:00 BST) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
After an underwhelming season by her exceptionally high standards, Swiatek has built confidence as she is into another clay court semi-final.
The Pole is looking to defend all three clay court titles this season and is in impressive form given her low confidence in the build-up to this tournament.
The world number two now gets to renew her rivalry with Gauff with the American also struggling for confidence and form before this tournament.
However, Gauff has scored some impressive wins this week and has proven why she should be the third favourite for the Roland Garros later this month as she bids for a first Madrid final.
Reflecting on her quarter-final win, Swiatek admitted it was one of the weirdest matches she has ever played.
“Honestly, it was one of the weirdest matches I’ve ever played,” Swiatek explained to the WTA website.
“I didn’t feel like [the first set] was that bad. I felt the ball well — it just went super long. I tried to play a bit shorter, and with some mistakes by Maddy, the momentum changed in the end. I’m happy that I did it.
“[Keys] was serving great, and in every service game she got like two, three points by aces or some amazing serves. So when I didn’t get them back I had no chance to win a point. Then, when I didn’t hold my serve, obviously, yeah, it became complicated. But that’s why it’s good that we have second sets to just change something up. And maybe, yeah, I feel like for sure I started serving better and that helped me.”
Meanwhile Gauff spoke about the keys to her recent success against Swiatek and her mentality about believing she can beat anyone on her day.
“Just belief,” Gauff said to the WTA website about her recent success against Swiatek.
“In the beginning of our matchups, she was a top player, and I felt like I maybe kind of wrote myself off before the match even came. I don’t think about that head-to-head anymore. Now I just treat it as a new match, new opportunity each time.
“I always feel like I have a good chance against anybody I play. I lost the first set this tournament, 6-0, and everybody was like, `Ooh, she’s going to lose next round.’ I’m going to expect her to play some great tennis and probably her best tennis, and I’ll try to match that by playing my best tennis.”
Swiatek will need to be aggressive on return as she will look to make a much better start to the match than she did against Keys.
Meanwhile Gauff will look to be aggressive on serve, using the forehand to put pressure on the Pole’s game.
This should be a fascinating match with Swiatek aiming to get some recent success over Gauff with the American winning their recent matches.
The Pole enters as slight favourite but Gauff will enter this match with the belief that she can reach a first Madrid final given her recent wins this week.
Prediction: Swiatek in three sets.
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Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Elina Svitolina [17] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1
It’s been a tricky journey this week but Aryna Sabalenka has dug deep and secured victories as her quest for a second consecutive Madrid final continues. The world number one has her sights on more clay court glory this season and will hope she can be consistent as she looks to elevate her game when it matters most. Standing in her way is Elina Svitolina who is playing some aggressive tennis and will hope to end Sabalenka’s run in order to reach her first Madrid final.
H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Elina Svitolina [17] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1 |
| Madrid 2025 | Madrid, Spain |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €291,040 |
| Fourth on Manolo Santana Stadium (Not before 19:30 BST) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
A hard-fought week for Sabalenka has been rewarded with a place in the semi-final as she continues to prove why she is the world number one.
Now Sabalenka targets a second consecutive Madrid final and more success ahead of Roland Garros.
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is Svitolina who is into the semi-finals as the Ukrainian is yet to drop a set this week.
Now Svitolina aims to overcome a poor head-to-head record in a bid to reach a first Madrid final.
Reflecting on her win over Marta Kostyuk, Sabalenka praised her fighting spirit as she reached another WTA semi-final.
“I think the end of both sets were pretty tough,” Sabalenka told the WTA website.
“I think the whole match, I was handling myself because of the conditions. It wasn’t about tennis, it was just about the way you can handle yourself and the way you can focus on yourself. That’s what I mean by handling myself. Because I think in those conditions anyone can win, so it’s nothing about tennis.”
Meanwhile Svitolina previewed her semi-final with Sabalenka and was adamant that she doesn’t look at stats and head-to-head records before stepping onto court.
“Played with Aryna a couple of times last year, had some tough battles,” Svitolina told the WTA website.
“Also losing from the two match points in Rome, that was a big fight out there on the court. So, yeah, it’s going to be a big challenge, doesn’t matter [which player] I will be facing tomorrow.
“Keep winning, that’s what I’m hoping for. I have a tough challenge in the semifinal. I try to not focus too much on the numbers because sometimes they can be disturbing, but of course everyone and every conversation is mentioning that. I draw the confidence from all those statistics that I have.”
Sabalenka will need to be more aggressive consistently on serve as Svitolina will punish any short second serves.
Meanwhile Svitolina will be aggressive on return and will aim to extend the rallies in order to force errors from Sabalenka.
This is Svitolina’s best chance to beat Sabalenka given the world number one’s vulnerabilities this week.
However, Sabalenka knows how to win matches and she should have too much quality in big moments for Svitolina.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
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