By Tony Fairbairn
- Iga Swiatek aims to get back on track in Indian Wells title defence in unpredictable women’s tournament
- Top Seeds: Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula
- British Interest: Katie Boulter [25], Emma Raducanu
INDIAN WELLS, USA – Iga Swiatek aims to get her season back on track as she looks to defend her Indian Wells title in an unpredictable tournament.
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[1] Aryna Sabalenka
Best Result: Final (2023)
After missing out on another Australian Open triumph, Sabalenka is now aiming for some form after early exits in Doha and Dubai.
Sabalenka’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: McCartney Kessler | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Magdalena Frech [30] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 1-0
- R4: Beatriz Haddad Maia [16] | H2H: First Meeting
- QF: Jasmine Paolini [6] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 3-2
- SF: Coco Gauff [3] | H2H: Gauff leads 5-4
- F: Iga Swiatek [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 8-4
A very tough opening round awaits for Sabalenka in the form of McCartney Kessler with the American in great form having reached the final in Austin. A decent next couple of rounds await after that with Beatriz Haddad Maia in poor form this season and a quarter-final against either Jasmine Paolini or Daria Kasatkina suiting the world number one. Ultimately Sabalenka will be happy with her draw as long as she can negotiate the opening round then the world number one could be in great form for her semi-final against Coco Gauff or Madison Keys in what would be a rematch of the Australian Open final.
[2] Iga Swiatek
Best Result: Champion (2022, 2024)
After some missed opportunities in the middle east, Swiatek is aiming to win her first title of the season at Indian Wells where she is defending champion.
Swiatek’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Caroline Garcia | H2H: Swiatek leads 4-1
- R3: Ons Jabeur [32] | H2H: Swiatek leads 5-2
- R4: Karolina Muchova [15] | H2H: Swiatek leads 3-1
- QF: Qinwen Zheng [8] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-1
- SF: Jessica Pegula [4] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-4
- F: Aryna Sabalenka [1] | H2H: Swiatek leads 8-4
Swiatek has a very favourable draw against some old rivals such as Caroline Garcia and Ons Jabeur. The Pole could have an extremely tricky last 16 tie against Karolina Muchova with the two players having some close contests in the past. Although Qinwen Zheng is the projected quarter-final match-up, Paula Badosa is the most likely last eight meeting given the Spaniard’s extremely good form. There are some brutal semi-final hurdles though with Jelena Ostapenko and Mirra Andreeva being Swiatek’s last two defeats and Jessica Pegula entering the tournament with a title to her name. The Pole should make the last four but then it will be a test of Swiatek’s character and quality to see if she can beat her nearest rivals in order to defend her title.
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[3] Coco Gauff
Best Result: Semi-Final (2024)
Gauff has often disappointed at Indian Wells and now the American is bidding to overcome a poor run of form in order to produce better results in 2025.
Gauff’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Moyuka Uchijima | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Maria Sakkari [29] | H2H: Sakkari leads 5-3
- R4: Diana Shnaider [13] | H2H: Shnaider leads 1-0
- QF: Madison Keys [5] | H2H: Keys leads 3-2
- SF: Aryna Sabalenka [1] | H2H: Gauff leads 5-4
- F: Iga Swiatek [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 11-3
A blockbuster opening match could await for Gauff in the form of former US Open champion Emma Raducanu. A tough set of matches could be next in the form of Maria Sakkari and Diana Shnaider before the American takes on Australian Open champion Keys in the quarter-finals. It’s set to be a tough route for Gauff and if the American doesn’t lift her game in the early rounds then she could be in trouble later on in the tournament.
[4] Jessica Pegula
Best Result: Quarter-Final (2021)
Pegula enters the sunshine double in a rich vain of form having won the WTA 250 event in Austin.
Pegula’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Magda Linette | H2H: Pegula leads 2-0
- R3: Jelena Ostapenko [26] | H2H: Pegula leads 3-2
- R4: Danielle Collins [14] | H2H: Pegula leads 5-0
- QF: Elena Rybakina [7] | H2H: Pegula leads 3-1
- SF: Iga Swiatek [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-4
- F: Aryna Sabalenka [1] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 6-2
Pegula will aim to overcome some early tests with Ostapenko, Elina Svitolina and Danielle Collins all potentially coming in the opening rounds. A quarter-final meeting with either Elena Rybakina or Dubai champion Andreeva will wait before facing Swiatek in the last four. This is a tough draw for Pegula but given the form she is in, she will fancy her chances at going deep and maybe even winning the title at Indian Wells.
Indian Wells begins on the 5th of March and ends on the 16th of March.
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