By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Madison Keys [19]
- H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – Aryna Sabalenka searches for a historic third consecutive title in Melbourne when she takes on a rejuvenated Madison Keys in the Australian Open final.
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Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Madison Keys [19] H2H & Match Fundamentals
After a slow start to the match, Aryna Sabalenka eventually cruised past her good friend Paula Badosa in order to reach a third Australian Open final. The world number one has had to overcome struggles with conditions and her own serve but has proven she is the dominant force in women’s tennis and is now bidding to be the fourth woman in the Open Era to win three consecutive titles at a Grand Slam. Standing in Sabalenka’s way is a rejuvenated Madison Keys who has continued her incredible start to the season by saving match point and defeating Iga Swiatek in a last set tiebreak in order to reach her second Grand Slam final.
| Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Madison Keys [19] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1 |
| Australian Open 2025 | Melbourne, Australia |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: A$1,900,000/A$3,500,000 |
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Keys has had the much tougher route overcoming multiple three set matches just to be in the final while Sabalenka has been dominant for the majority of her run to the final.
Aryna Sabalenka [1] route to the final
R1: Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2
R2: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5
R3: Clara Tauson 7-6(5) 6-4
R4: Mirra Andreeva [14] 6-1 6-2
QF: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova [27] 6-2 2-6 6-3
SF: Paula Badosa [11] 6-4 6-2
Madison Keys [19] route to the final
R1: Ann Li 6-4 7-5
R2: Elena-Gabriela Ruse [Q] 7-6(1) 2-6 7-5
R3: Danielle Collins [10] 6-4 6-4
R4: Elena Rybakina [6] 6-3 1-6 6-3
QF: Elina Svitolina [28] 3-6 6-3 6-4
SF: Iga Swiatek [2] 5-7 6-1 7-6(10-8)
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Last 52 Weeks)
| H2H: | Aryna Sabalenka (WR 1) | Madison Keys (WR 14) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Champion (2023, 2024) | Semi-Finals (2015, 2022) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 36.7 | 36.7 |
| Return Points Won % | 45.5 | 43.8 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 47.1 | 44.4 |
| Break Point Saved % | 61.4 | 60.1 |
| Total Points Won % | 54 | 52.2 |
Keys will need to be at her best on serve as Sabalenka has been the most efficient player on return at this year’s Australian Open.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
It’s a third consecutive final for Sabalenka as the world number one has only dropped one set in another dominant display at Melbourne Park.
Now Sabalenka is bidding to become the fourth woman in the Open Era to win three consecutive titles at a single Grand Slam and the first since Martina Hingis to do it at the Australian Open.
After her semi-final win, Sabalenka admitted it would mean the world to her if she managed to achieve history in Australia and join an elite group of players that have won three consecutive titles at a single Grand Slam.
“It’s [a] privilege. If I’ll be able to put my name in the history…it’s going to mean the world for me,” Sabalenka told the Australian Open website.
“It’s been a dream, I couldn’t even dream about that to be honest, at first I was dreaming to win at least one Grand Slam [but] now I have this opportunity, it’s incredible and I’m going to go out and leave everything I have [on court] in the final.
“I feel so good here, I feel all the support. I have goosebumps every time they scream ‘Let’s go Aryna.’ I feel like I’m coming home to my home slam.”
Standing in Sabalenka’s way of history is Keys who has battled through the draw and won a last set tiebreak to end Swiatek’s Australian Open dreams.
The American now bids for a maiden Grand Slam title after experiencing a career full of highs and lows emotionally and physically.
After reaching her first Australian Open final, Keys reflected on her epic battle with Swiatek and admitted she is ecstatic to be in the final.
“I’m in the finals,” Keys was quoted by the Australian Open website as saying.
“I felt like I had a bit of momentum at the end of the first set, then ran through the second and the third set was so up and down, so many big chances we didn’t take and she had a match point. I feel like I blacked out at some point and was just running around.
“I think at the end we were both battling some nerves and just pushing each other, it just became who can get that final point, who can be that little bit better than the other one. I’m happy it was me.
“That match was such high level, she played so well and I felt like I was trying to stay with it, then kind of ran through the second set and the third was just a battle. To be standing here and to be in the finals is absolutely amazing, and I’m so excited to be playing in the final on Saturday.”
Sabalenka will continue to be on the front foot as she uses the forehand to force Keys into big errors from the baseline.
Meanwhile Keys will need to serve consistently at a high level and not allow Sabalenka to dictate play on the return.
Both players will be nervous for different reasons as personal milestones and history are on the line in Melbourne.
However Sabalenka should have too much experience and quality for an in-form Keys, who will push the world number one all the way in this enthralling final.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
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