By Tony Fairbairn
- Jannik Sinner [1] v Alexander Zverev [2]
- H2H: Zverev leads 4-2
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – Alexander Zverev will be hoping third time’s the charm as he looks to finally break his Grand Slam curse against defending champion Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final.
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Jannik Sinner [1] v Alexander Zverev [2] H2H & Match Fundamentals
World number one Jannik Sinner is into his third consecutive Grand Slam final on hard courts after he defeated Ben Shelton in straight sets. The Italian overcame a rocky start to prevail and now he bids to defend his Australian Open title in what is coach Darren Cahill’s last year on the tour as a coach. Standing in Sinner’s way is Alexander Zverev who is aiming to win his maiden Grand Slam title in what will be his third Grand Slam final as he bids to break the heartbreak of his previous two finals.
| Jannik Sinner [1] v Alexander Zverev [2] | H2H: Zverev leads 4-2 |
| Australian Open 2025 | Melbourne, Australia |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: A$1,900,000/A$3,500,000 |
| Second on Rod Laver Arena (Not before 08:30 GMT) | Discovery+ Add-on via Amazon Prime
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Sinner has had to survive a couple of early scares on his way to the final while Zverev narrowly avoided a two set deficit against Tommy Paul en route to his maiden Australian Open final.
Jannik Sinner [1] route to the final
R1: Nicolas Jarry 7-6(2) 7-6(5) 6-1
R2: Tristan Schoolkate [WC] 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-3
R3: Marcos Giron 6-3 6-4 6-2
R4: Holger Rune [13] 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2
QF: Alex De Minaur [8] 6-3 6-2 6-1
SF: Ben Shelton [21] 7-6(2) 6-3 6-2
Alexander Zverev [2] route to the final
R1: Lucas Pouille [WC] 6-4 6-4 6-4
R2: Pedro Martinez 6-1 6-4 6-1
R3: Jacob Fearnley 6-3 6-4 6-4
R4: Ugo Humbert [14] 6-1 2-6 6-3 6-2
QF: Tommy Paul [12] 7-6(1) 7-6(0) 2-6 6-1
SF: Novak Djokovic [7] 7-6(5) RET
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Last 52 Weeks)
| H2H: | Jannik Sinner (WR 1) | Alexander Zverev (WR 2) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Champion (2024) | Semi-Finals (2020, 2024) |
| 1st Serve % | 61.4 | 71.1 |
| Service Games Won % | 91.7 | 89.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 73.9 | 70.3 |
| 2nd Serve Return Points Won % | 56.1 | 52 |
| Break Points Converted % | 42.5 | 37.3 |
The serve will be the key area of the match for Zverev as Sinner is the more efficient and dominant returner with the Italian’s persistence being shown regularly throughout the tournament.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
A second consecutive Australian Open final for Sinner as the Italian has continued to show his dominance despite facing motivated opposition and battling through illness.
The Italian now bids to defend his title and claim a third consecutive Grand Slam title on hard courts, proving why he is the undisputed world number one.
Ahead of the final Sinner spoke about the challenges of defending his title and previewed the final with Zverev.
“As I said before, every day is a big challenge. Every day you have a different opponent,” Sinner told the ATP website.
“You try to understand what’s happening. Sometimes you have some issues and then trying to understand that whatever works best for that day and trying to go for it. Everyone makes mistakes. Nobody’s perfect. That’s it.
“Obviously, it’s a great position to be in. [In the] back of my head I also know that I’m 23 years old, and I am not perfect. I know that I have things still to improve. I have certain areas where I can get better. That’s what we work for, no?
“First of all, it’s going to be mental. Then, of course, we played already. It’s going to be a tough match for both of us. It’s going to be physical, for sure. Then we see. I think he played some incredible tennis to go to the final.
“It’s tough to say whoever is the favourite in a way because everything can happen. These are all questions we are going to get answered Sunday. It’s very difficult to talk today in advance.”
Next up for Sinner is Zverev, who has beaten the Italian on four previous occasions with the world number two into his third Grand Slam final.
In his previous two Grand Slam finals Zverev has been two sets up but has gone on to lose and the German will now look to right the wrongs of the past and achieve his Grand Slam dream.
After reaching his first Australian Open final, Zverev spoke about the impact that Novak Djokovic has had on his career after the Serb retired during their semi-final.
“[In Shanghai] I was just asking him how it was for him when he was having difficult moments, in 2016, 2017 and all that,” Zverev recalled to the ATP website.
“How he was coming back. He was always very open to me. We had very long chats there. We practised quite a lot together in Shanghai, funny enough. He was just talking to me about his situations and about his experiences with difficult times. As I said on the court, I have nothing but respect for him. I absolutely admire him. It’s the way it is now.
“I still think that I played a high-level set. I think we both did. So in that regard, I still played tennis. It’s not like it was a withdrawal from the get-go, and I would have had four days off. That would have been maybe a bit too much because then you feel like you’re starting a new tournament. You don’t want this feeling before a final. You want to be in a match rhythm.
“It is how it is. It’s nothing that, of course, I wished for, but it happened. I’m obviously happy that I’m in a Grand Slam final again. I’m obviously happy that I have another shot at winning a Grand Slam. Was it the way I wanted it to end? No, of course not. It’s how it is sometimes in sports. I’ve been in his situation, you know, at Roland Garros with probably a worse injury. It’s life. It’s sports.”
Sinner will look to neutralize the Zverev serve as much as possible with the Italian using the forehand to put the German under pressure early on.
Meanwhile Zverev will need to serve aggressively and will approach the net when he can in order to finish points off efficiently.
This has historically been a very good match for Zverev and the match he lost at Cincinnati last year was only in a last set tiebreak as he will test Sinner’s physicality as much as possible.
However Sinner has the psychological advantage when it comes to Grand Slam finals and raising his game when it matters most as the Italian enters this match as very slight favourite to win his third Grand Slam title.
Prediction: Sinner in five sets.
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