By Tony Fairbairn
- Jannik Sinner aims for Shanghai title defence after Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal
- Top Seeds: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz
- British Interest: Cameron Norrie [30]
SHANGHAI, CHINA – Jannik Sinner is aiming to successfully defend his Shanghai title and take advantage of Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the tournament.
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[2] Jannik Sinner
Best Result: Champion (2024)
Sinner has revenge on his mind after losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open final and is aiming to continue his momentum from winning the Beijing title.
Sinner’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Daniel Altmaier | H2H: Tied at 1-1
- R3: Tallon Griekspoor [27] | H2H: Sinner leads 6-0
- R4: Alexander Bublik [14] | H2H: Sinner leads 5-2
- QF: Taylor Fritz [5] | H2H: Sinner leads 4-1
- SF: Novak Djokovic [4] | H2H: Sinner leads 6-4
- F: Alexander Zverev [3] | H2H: Zverev leads 4-3
A potentially tricky opening round contest awaits Sinner against Daniel Altmaier who he has struggled against in the past. The Italian could renew his rivalry with Alexander Bublik should the Kazakh defeat Tomas Machac in the third round while Tokyo finalist Taylor Fritz is the projected quarter-finalist. Ultimately Sinner is favourite to go back-to-back in Shanghai, the question is who will be the one to challenge from the top half of the draw after Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the tournament?
[3] Alexander Zverev
Best Result: Final (2019)
Zverev will aim to take advantage of an open section of the draw as he has a place at the ATP Finals on his mind heading into the latter stages of the tournament.
Zverev’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Mariano Navone | H2H: First Meeting
- R3: Alex Michelsen [28] | H2H: Zverev leads 1-0
- R4: Jiri Lehecka [15] | H2H: Tied at 1-1
- QF: Lorenzo Musetti [8] | H2H: Musetti leads 3-1
- SF: Alex De Minaur [7] | H2H: Zverev leads 8-3
- F: Jannik Sinner [2] | H2H: Zverev leads 4-3
Zverev will open up his campaign against either Mariano Navone or dangerous qualifier Valentin Royer before a potential third round meeting with big-serving American Alex Michelsen. A testing fourth round match will await Zverev in the form of either Jiri Lehecka or Denis Shapovalov while Lorenzo Musetti could await in the quarter-finals with the Italian having a very good record against Zverev. An open semi-final will await Zverev with Alex De Minaur to be the likely challenger to the German in the last four. If Zverev can get past a dangerous fourth round match then the German will be the one to challenge Sinner in the final but even that is far from a guarantee.
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[4] Novak Djokovic
Best Result: Champion (2012, 2013, 2015, 2018)
After another Grand Slam semi-final defeat, Djokovic will hope he can make a breakthrough at Masters 1000 level in what has been a disappointing season by his exceptionally high standards.
Djokovic’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE | H2H: N/A
- R2: Marin Cilic | H2H: Djokovic leads 19-2
- R3: Frances Tiafoe [25] | H2H: Djokovic leads 2-0
- R4: Andrey Rublev [13] | H2H: Djokovic leads 5-1
- QF: Ben Shelton [6] | H2H: Djokovic leads 1-0
- SF: Jannik Sinner [2] | H2H: Sinner leads 6-4
- F: Alexander Zverev [3] | H2H: Djokovic leads 9-5
A familiar foe could await Djokovic in the opening round in the form of former US Open champion Marin Cilic. An out of sorts Frances Tiafoe is the projected third round clash although it wouldn’t be too surprising if the American went out before then while a resurgent Andrey Rublev will aim to provide a stern fourth round test. Meanwhile a tasty quarter-final showdown against Ben Shelton could await before the semi-final showdown with Sinner. Should Djokovic play his best tennis then the Serb should reach the last four before falling to the Italian once again.
[5] Taylor Fritz
Best Result: Semi-Final (2024)
After reaching the Tokyo final, Fritz is hoping to carry the momentum into Shanghai where he reached the semi-finals last year.
Fritz’s Path to the Final (Ranking/Seeding)
- R1: BYE| H2H: N/A
- R2: Fabian Marozsan | H2H: Fritz leads 1-0
- R3: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard [32] | H2H: Fritz leads 1-0
- R4: Holger Rune [10] | H2H: Fritz leads 2-1
- QF: Jannik Sinner [2] | H2H: Sinner leads 4-1
- SF: Novak Djokovic [4] | H2H: Djokovic leads 11-0
- F: Alexander Zverev [3] | H2H: Fritz leads 9-5
An interesting first match could await Fritz as he takes on either Fabian Marozsan or Stan Wawrinka to begin his campaign. A third round meeting against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will test the American’s ability to serve under pressure while Holger Rune or Ugo Humbert will await in the fourth round. If Fritz can continue to produce some clinical tennis on serve then he should reach the quarter-finals before inevitably going out to Sinner.
ATP Shanghai starts on the first of October and concludes on the 12th of October.
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