Swiatek’s first week is relatively comfortable with Daria Saville expected to test the world number one’s athleticism in the early round. A last 16 meeting with Jelena Ostapenko or Veronika Kudermetova will test Swiatek’s ability to be aggressive as this match will start a very tough second week for the pole. A quarter-final meeting with Coco Gauff looks less straightforward after the American beat Swiatek for the first time in Cincinnati while a semi-final meeting with Rybakina also poses challenges to the Pole’s recent fatigued tennis. Overall the draw allows Swiatek to play her way into the tournament and it’s well documented that if Swiatek can build her confidence and play her best tennis in the second week, then there’s nobody that can stop the Pole’s bid for a fifth Grand Slam title.
Sabalenka has a fairly comfortable opening two rounds against Maryna Zanevskaor Anna Blinkova, who will have to beat Jodie Burrage first to set up that second round match. A third round match against Karolina Pliskova will be Sabalenka’s first test before facing one of Daria Kasatkina, Venus Williams, Paula Badosa or Donna Vekic in the last 16. A quarter-final against Ons Jabeur could determine the fate of who faces Swiatek in the final with Sabalenka gaining revenge against Jabeur in Cincinnati. Overall it’s a good draw for Sabalenka but only if the world number two can stay consistent, any dips in form and Sabalenka could be saying goodbye to New York before she’s said hello.
Pegula couldn’t have asked for a more difficult draw with the American having to face big-hitting Camila Giorgi in her opening round even if Pegula has a convincing head-to-head against the Italian. The American will then have to go through tests against Elina Svitolina, Liudmila Samsonova and Madison Keysbefore a potential quarter-final meeting with Caroline Garcia. Overall Pegula will need to pass some severe tests to get to the latter stages in New York but if the American can bring her best tennis than she will be a difficult player to beat for any player in the draw.
Rybakina is looking to overcome fatigue and injuries to win her second Grand Slam title of her career at the US Open in what is her weakest Grand Slam.
Rybakina’s Path to the Final
R1: Marta Kostyuk | H2H: Kostyuk leads 1-0
R2: Panna Udvardy | H2H: First Meeting
R3: Sorana Cirstea  | H2H: Rybakina leads 2-0
R4: Belinda Bencic  | H2H: Tied at 1-1
QF: Maria Sakkari  | H2H: First Meeting
SF: Iga Swiatek  | H2H: Rybakina leads 3-1
F: Aryna Sabalenka  | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1
Rybakina has been given a very tricky opening round against Marta Kostyuk which will test her title credentials and fitness levels early on. Tests against the likes of Sorana Cirstea and Belinda Bencic will further test where her game is at in the second week before a potential quarter-final against Karolina Muchova. Overall if Rybakina can get through the opening week unscathed then she stands a good chance of going all the way however at the moment there are big question marks as to whether she can consistently maintain her level.
The 2023 US Open takes place between on the 28 August and 10 September.
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