Tennis | Rome 2023 | Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune clash for Roland Garros momentum in final showdown

By Tony Fairbairn

  • Daniil Medvedev [3] v Holger Rune [7]
  • H2H: Rune leads 1-0
ROME, ITALY – Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune clash in the Rome final as they search for momentum heading into Roland Garros.


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Daniil Medvedev [3] v Holger Rune [7]  H2H & Match Fundamentals

Daniil Medvedev has continued his outstanding season on clay as he is into a third Masters 1000 final of the season in Rome. Medvedev’s brutal baseline game was enough to take out last year’s finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas as he now searches for a fifth title this season and a bid to establish himself as one of the favourites for Roland Garros. Standing in Medvedev’s way is talented Dane Holger Rune who has showed his resilience this week to defeat Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud to reach the Rome final where he bids for a second Masters 1000 title of his career.

Daniil Medvedev [3] v Holger Rune [7] H2H: Rune leads 1-0
Rome 2023 Rome, Italy
Clay (O) Prize Money: €580,000/€1,105,265
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Medvedev has only dropped one set on his way to the final while Rune started the tournament in confident fashion before digging deep against some tough opposition to grind his way to the final.


Daniil Medvedev [3] route to the final

Embed from Getty Images
  • R2: Emil Ruusuvuori 6-4 6-2
  • R3: Bernabe Zapata Miralles [31] 3-6 6-1 6-3
  • R4: Alexander Zverev [19] 6-2 7-6(3)
  • QF: Yannick Hanfmann [Q] 6-2 6-2
  • SF: Stefanos Tsitsipas [5] 7-5 7-5


Holger Rune [7] route to the final

Embed from Getty Images
  • R2: Arthur Fils [Q] 6-3 6-3
  • R3: Fabio Fognini [WC] 6-4 6-2
  • R4: Alexei Popyrin [Q] 6-4 5-7 6-4
  • QF: Novak Djokovic [1] 6-2 4-6 6-2
  • SF: Casper Ruud [4] 6-7(2) 6-4 6-2


Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2023)

Embed from Getty Images
H2H: Daniil Medvedev (WR 3) Holger Rune (WR 7)
Tournament Previous Best R2 (2021) QR1 (2022)
1st Serve % 64.1 62.1
Service Games Won % 85 85.3
Break Points Saved % 67.3 65
2nd Serve Return Points Won % 56.3 51.2
Break Points Converted % 48.5 40.4

Medvedev will look to continue to be consistently efficient on return as Rune will be looking to improve his serving statistics in the final.


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Playing Styles and Prediction

Medvedev is into his third Masters 1000 final of the season as he continues to show his resurgent form this season, translating his form from hard courts to clay. Now the world number three will look to continue his rise in 2023 by making the most of his opportunity in Rome by winning his first clay court title ahead of Roland Garros.

After his win over Tsitsipas, Medvedev spoke about what he did during the rain delay to maintain his concentration.

“I enjoyed playing today,” Medvedev admitted to the ATP website.

“It was very tough with the rain delay, I warmed up like six or seven times, but actually sometimes it can throw you off, you can be a little bit angry [about] the situation. Today, I don’t know why, I was just kind of laughing.

“There were so many moments where I was with my coach, [and he said], ‘OK they are opening the court, let’s go warm up’. We [went] there, started warming up, [and received a] text: ‘The rain is heavy, stop warming up’. We were laughing about this, we were actually OK. [We said], ‘OK, we [will] play’, and that’s what we managed to do.”

In the final Medvedev will face Rune who showed his resilience to forge a comeback against Ruud to reach his second Masters 1000 final of this clay court season. The Dane is slowly turning into one of the favourites for Roland Garros and winning the Rome title will only help in establishing himself as one of the players to beat in Paris.

After his semi-final victory, Rune explained that his aggressive tennis helped him pull through and spoke about playing his best tennis against the world’s best players.

“I had nothing to lose in the second [set], so I just told myself to play freely and enjoy it as I thought it would be my last set here,” Rune told the ATP website.

“I told myself to play aggressively and enjoy it and I did it and that was the key to comeback. I really played some of my best tennis in the past two matches against Novak and then Casper. Two difficult players to play, so I had to find my best tennis and I actually didn’t find it today, only at the end and that is why I turned it around.”

Medvedev will continue to grind from the baseline using his forehand to create depth and his backhand to accelerate the pace of the rallies. Meanwhile Rune will look to serve consistently well as he looks to use his powerful forehand to not allow Medvedev time to turn defence into attack.

This will be a match full of brutal rallies with both players looking to grind each other out in this war of attrition. Despite Medvedev’s impressively consistent tennis from the baseline, Rune’s variety and power may just have too much for the world number three as he aims for a second Masters 1000 title.

Prediction: Rune in three sets.



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