By Tony Fairbairn
- Iga Swiatek [1] v Jasmine Paolini [12]
- H2H: Swiatek leads 2-0
PARIS, FRANCE – Iga Swiatek looks to dash Jasmine Paolini’s Grand Slam dreams as the world number one bids for a third consecutive Roland Garros title.
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Iga Swiatek [1] v Jasmine Paolini [12] H2H & Match Fundamentals
Another professional performance from Iga Swiatek against Coco Gauff sees the Pole into her fifth Grand Slam final and her fourth at Roland Garros. So far in her career, Swiatek is yet to lose a Grand Slam final and should that 100% success rate continue then the defending champion will win her fourth Roland Garros. Standing in Swiatek’s way is Jasmine Paolini who became the first Italian woman to reach a Grand Slam singles final since Roberta Vinci in 2015 after thrashing Mirra Andreeva in the semi-finals.
| Iga Swiatek [1] v Jasmine Paolini [12] | H2H: Swiatek leads 2-0 |
| Roland Garros 2024 | Paris, France |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €1,200,000/€2,400,000 |
| Second on Philippe Chatrier (Not before 14:00 BST) | Discovery+ Add-on via Amazon Prime
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Apart from saving match points against Naomi Osaka, Swiatek has had a routine route to the final meanwhile Paolini has had to beat two former Grand Slam champions on her way to a first Grand Slam final.
Iga Swiatek [1] route to the final
R1: Leolia Jeanjean [Q] 6-1 6-2
R2: Naomi Osaka 7-6(1) 1-6 7-5
R3: Marie Bouzkova 6-4 6-2
R4: Anastasia Potapova 6-0 6-0
QF: Marketa Vondrousova [5] 6-0 6-2
SF: Coco Gauff [3] 6-2 6-4
Jasmine Paolini [12] route to the final
R1: Daria Saville 6-3 6-4
R2: Hailey Baptiste [LL] 6-4 7-6(6)
R3: Bianca Andreescu [PR] 6-1 3-6 6-0
R4: Elina Avanesyan 4-6 6-0 6-1
QF: Elena Rybakina [4] 6-2 4-6 6-4
SF: Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-1
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2024 – Clay)
| H2H: | Iga Swiatek (WR 1) | Jasmine Paolini (WR 15) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Champion (2020, 2022, 2023) | R2 (2020, 2021, 2023) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 41.7 | 45.7 |
| Return Points Won % | 48.5 | 50.7 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 43.7 | 52.4 |
| Break Point Saved % | 71.3 | 55.7 |
| Total Points Won % | 56.4 | 54 |
Although Swiatek’s break point conversion hasn’t been as efficient as it normally would be, the world number one’s clutch serving on big points has made her tough to beat on this surface as Paolini will aim to be aggressive on return.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
Swiatek’s Roland Garros dominance continues as the world number one is just one win away from a fourth Roland Garros title.
So far the Pole is yet to lose a Grand Slam final and should that 100% success rate continue then she will tie Justine Henin on Roland Garros titles.
Ahead of the final Swiatek spoke about what changed after her second round match against Osaka and comparisons being made between her and her idol Rafael Nadal’s dominance at this event.
“For sure something changed. I would say I just adjusted better to the court,” Swiatek explained to the Roland Garros website.
“It’s not easy to play the first matches on a Grand Slam because the atmosphere is much different than it is in other tournaments. I guess with Naomi I didn’t have time to get into it. It was intense from the beginning and she put pressure on me, so I’m happy that I handled it well. After that the weather changed also and it helps my game. I just gained confidence.
“We’ll see in 14 years if the journey is similar. I mean, that’s obviously really nice for me. I would never expect anybody to compare me to Rafa because for me he’s above everybody, and he’s a total legend.
“Yeah, as I said, we’ll see in couple of years, but I’m proud of myself that I’m playing consistently here and that I’m mentioned in the same sentence as Rafa. That’s cool.”
Swiatek is now looking to dash Paolini’s dreams as the Italian is into her first Grand Slam final and became the first female from her country to reach a singles final for nine years.
Now Paolini aims to claim the biggest win of her career and achieve her Grand Slam dream in what has been a memorable tournament for Italy.
Speaking ahead of the final Paolini admitted she never thought she would make the final and spoke about how other Italians have inspired her to achieve her dreams.
“It’s a great feeling to be in a Grand Slam final,” Paolini told the WTA website.
“It seems something impossible, but it’s true. I’m really happy to be in this position. I never dreamed to be I think in a Grand Slam final, and I’m here. Of course, I was watching Grand Slam finals. I was watching the other Italians make it in the finals, and also won Grand Slams, but imagine that [could] be myself was tough.
“Of course, I wished, but now it’s something crazy for me. I’m really happy. Also surprised. That’s the feeling right now.”
The key for Swiatek will be continuing to maintain her aggression in pressure points and serve as she will need to force Paolini to be more aggressive then she usually is.
Meanwhile Paolini will aim for depth from the forehand side as she will need to produce consistently high numbers on serve.
The start of this match will be very important for Paolini as she needs to settle her nerves early on and build confidence in her tactical ability early on.
However experience and quality should prove too much for the Italian as Swiatek is expected to win her fifth Grand Slam title.
Prediction: Swiatek in straight sets.
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