By Tony Fairbairn
- Carlos Alcaraz [1] v Jan-Lennard Struff [LL]
- H2H: Tied at 1-1
MADRID, SPAIN – Carlos Alcaraz is looking to successfully defend his Madrid title when he takes on lucky loser Jan-Lennard Struff in the Madrid final.
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Carlos Alcaraz [1] v Jan-Lennard Struff [LL] H2H & Match Fundamentals
It’s now 20 successive wins for Carlos Alcaraz in Spain after defeating Borna Coric in the semi-finals. The Spaniard is now looking for another triumphant title defence in his home country ahead of Roland Garros later this month as he edges closer towards regaining the world number one ranking. Standing in Alcaraz’s way in the final is lucky loser Jan-Lennard Struff who is the first lucky loser in history to reach a Masters 1000 final and is looking to cause another upset in a historic last ten days for the German.
| Carlos Alcaraz [1] v Jan-Lennard Struff [LL] | H2H: Tied at 1-1 |
| Madrid Open 2023 | Madrid, Spain |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €580,000/€1,105,265 |
| Second on Manolo Santana Stadium (Not before 17:30 BST) | Amazon Prime Video <– Sign up for trial |
After a mini-blip in his opening match, Alcaraz has dominated the rest of the field while Struff has done things the hard way in order to reach the final.
Carlos Alcaraz [1] route to the final
- R2: Emil Ruusuvuori 2-6 6-4 6-2
- R3: Grigor Dimitrov [26] 6-2 7-5
- R4: Alexander Zverev [13] 6-1 6-2
- QF: Karen Khachanov [10] 6-4 7-5
- SF: Borna Coric [17] 6-4 6-3
Jan-Lennard Struff [LL] route to the final
- R1: Lorenzo Sonego 6-3 6-1
- R2: Ben Shelton [32] 4-6 7-6(4) 7-5
- R3: Dusan Lajovic 6-7(2) 6-3 6-3
- R4: Pedro Cachin 7-6(7) 6-7(7) 6-3
- QF: Stefanos Tsitsipas [4] 7-6(5) 5-7 6-3
- SF: Aslan Karatsev [Q] 4-6 6-3 6-4
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2023)
| H2H: | Carlos Alcaraz (WR 2) | Jan-Lennard Struff (WR 65) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Champion (2022) | R2 (2018, 2019) |
| 1st Serve % | 65.6 | 58.5 |
| Service Games Won % | 85.3 | 84.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64.9 | 70.2 |
| 2nd Serve Return Points Won % | 55.2 | 52.3 |
| Break Points Converted % | 50 | 49.1 |
Despite Alcaraz’s dominance this season, Struff has remained just as clinical as the Spaniard on break points as this match will be won on the efficiency of the serve.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
Alcaraz is edging towards regaining his world number one ranking after claiming his 20th consecutive win in Spain. After a dominant clay court season so far, the Spaniard is now one win away from defending his Madrid title and cementing his favourite status at Roland Garros.
Speaking after his semi-final win, Alcaraz spoke about how special it is to claim victory on his birthday and what it means for him to play in Madrid.
“It means a lot to me, playing a final again here in Madrid,” Alcaraz told the ATP website.
“It’s such a special place for me and I have great memories since I came here to play [as an] under-12. Of course last year was amazing. Turning 20 like that is special, so I will enjoy the final here and of course I will try to make all of Spain happy.
“I enjoy playing here in Madrid. I always try to make [the fans] happy and myself happy as well. I don’t think about the pressure here, I just think about playing a great game, getting good results. It’s a really special place for me, I enjoy every second here, so that’s all I think about.”
In the final Alcaraz will play Struff who has had a dream week as he is the first ever lucky loser to reach a Masters 1000 final. The German’s powerful style of play mixed with great athleticism from the baseline has seen him cause some upsets in the Spanish capital and Struff will be hoping to achieve one more as he searches for a maiden Masters 1000 title.
After his semi-final victory Struff described the achievement as ‘amazing’ and spoke about his match with Alcaraz.
“It is amazing. I didn’t think about this. I played one final before in Munich [2021] but there was no crowd because of Covid. Now I am here and [there is] an amazing crowd,” Struff told the ATP website.
“I think on Sunday it will also be a very good crowd. I am very happy to reach a final and very happy with the win. We played an amazing match at Wimbledon last year and I was very close to beating him but he pulled off unbelievable shots in the tie-break.
“This is going to be different. This is in Spain, in Madrid. I think he is 20-0 on Spanish clay courts, so it is going to be very tough. I have to go for it otherwise I will have no chance. I will try my best to beat him and win my first title.”
Alcaraz will look to continue to be efficient on return but will need to show a lot of variety and craft if he wants to win this match. Meanwhile Struff will look to dominate the tempo of rallies from the baseline as he looks to use the conditions to his advantage and create easy winners especially on the forehand side. Struff needs to make a quick start if he wants to win this match but the Spaniard should have too much quality and consistency as he should claim a second Madrid title.
Prediction: Alcaraz in straight sets.
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