By Tony Fairbairn
- Iga Swiatek [1] v Aryna Sabalenka [2]
- H2H: Swiatek leads 5-2
MADRID, SPAIN – Aryna Sabalenka searches for revenge from Stuttgart last week as she takes on Iga Swiatek in the final of Madrid.
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Iga Swiatek [1] v Aryna Sabalenka [2] H2H & Match Fundamentals
Iga Swiatek’s search to complete her clay court collection of big titles continues after only dropping two games against Veronika Kudermetova. The world number one is back to her dominant best on clay and is now looking for her second consecutive title as she looks to send a big statement of intent heading into Roland Garros. Standing in Swiatek’s way is Aryna Sabalenka who eased past Maria Sakkari in the last four and is looking for her second title in Madrid.
| Iga Swiatek [1] v Aryna Sabalenka [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 5-2 |
| Madrid Open 2023 | Madrid, Spain |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €580,000/€1,105,265 |
| Second on Manolo Santana Stadium (Not before 17:30 BST) | Amazon Prime Video <– Sign up for trial |
Both players have dropped one set on their way to the final but it’s Swiatek who has looked more convincing throughout the tournament.
Iga Swiatek [1] route to the final
- R2: Julia Grabher [LL] 6-3 6-2
- R3: Bernarda Pera [28] 6-3 6-2
- R4: Ekaterina Alexandrova [16] 6-4 6-7(3) 6-3
- QF: Petra Martic [27] 6-0 6-3
- SF: Veronika Kudermetova [12] 6-1 6-1
Aryna Sabalenka [2] route to the final
- R2: Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3
- R3: Camila Osorio [WC] 6-4 7-5
- R4: Mirra Andreeva [WC] 6-3 6-1
- QF: Mayar Sherif 2-6 6-2 6-1
- SF: Maria Sakkari [9] 6-4 6-1
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2023)
| H2H: | Iga Swiatek (WR 1) | Aryna Sabalenka (WR 2) |
| Tournament Previous Best | R3 (2021) | Champion (2021) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 42.2 | 37.2 |
| Return Points Won % | 50.7 | 46.2 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 56.3 | 45.5 |
| Break Point Saved % | 41 | 67.1 |
| Total Points Won % | 58.3 | 55.2 |
Sabalenka’s efficiency when saving break points will be put to the test when she takes on the clinical break point conversion rate of Swiatek.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
After a tricky start to the season, the world number one has regained her form on her favourite surface and is into her first final in Madrid. Now Swiatek will be looking to defeat her nearest rival this season for a second successive week as she looks to complete her collection of big titles on clay.
After her semi-final win Swiatek spoke about the challenges facing her against Sabalenka and why she is successful on clay.
“I think every match is different and every match is hard against Aryna, especially,” Swiatek told the WTA website.
“I don’t know if it will be hard or easier, because it’s always hard. I’m just going to be focused and disciplined and try to do my job no matter how she’s going to play or how the conditions will be.
“I always have good feelings about this surface. Even when I’m in a tougher position or when the match is not going the right way I know I have the ability to change something up and I have a Plan B. On clay I feel like I have more weapons and I can use them. It doesn’t matter what the streak is or how many matches I’ve won. I always feel good on clay.”
In the final Swiatek will face Sabalenka who has continued her incredibly consistent season by reaching her second consecutive clay court final. Now Sabalenka will look to beat one of her rivals in favourable conditions as she continues to prove her reliability in pressure moments this season.
After her win over Sakkari, Sabalenka praised her mental toughness as she looks to win a second Madrid title.
“I think it was actually my best match of the tournament,” Sabalenka told the WTA website.
“I started really well. Then Maria came back. But mentally I was staying really strong. I knew that she’s going to fight for every point. It didn’t, how to say, didn’t destroy me that she came back. I was still playing, I was still fighting for every point.
“Yeah, I’m super happy with the level that I played, and especially with my mental game, I would say. I’m more happy with my mental game.”
Swiatek will look to continue to be effective on return and counter-attack Sabalenka’s power with her quick movement. Meanwhile Sabalenka will look to use her big forehand to make Swiatek feel uncomfortable from the baseline.
Sabalenka will need to make a quick start and will have to be patient in the rallies, waiting for the right opportunity to be aggressive. This should be an entertaining contest but Swiatek’s clay court quality should prevail in a bruising three set contest.
Prediction: Swiatek in three sets.
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