By Tony Fairbairn
- Iga Swiatek [1] v Aryna Sabalenka [2]
- H2H: Swiatek leads 6-3
MADRID, SPAIN – Iga Swiatek is looking to gain revenge on defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in a repeat of last year’s Madrid final.
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Iga Swiatek [1] v Aryna Sabalenka [2] H2H & Match Fundamentals
Iga Swiatek produced another dominant clay court performance as the world number one cruised past Madison Keys in order to reach a second consecutive Madrid final. Now the Pole looks for her first title in Madrid and looks to complete the career quadruple of clay court titles as well as a psychological boost ahead of Roland Garros. Standing in Swiatek’s way is the player that beat her in last year’s final in the form of Aryna Sabalenka after the Australian Open champion won a last set tiebreak against Elena Rybakina in the semi-finals.
| Iga Swiatek [1] v Aryna Sabalenka [2] | H2H: Swiatek leads 6-3 |
| Madrid 2024 | Madrid, Spain |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €512,260/€963,225 |
| Second on Manolo Santana Stadium (Not before 17:30 BST) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
Swiatek has had the easier route to the final while Sabalenka has had to dig deep and be resilient in order to set up a rematch of last year’s final.
Iga Swiatek [1] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: Xiyu Wang 6-1 6-4
R3: Sorana Cirstea [27] 6-1 6-1
R4: Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1 6-0
QF: Beatriz Haddad Maia [11] 4-6 6-0 6-2
SF: Madison Keys [18] 6-1 6-3
Aryna Sabalenka [2] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3
R3: Robin Montgomery [WC] 6-1 6-7(5) 6-4
R4: Danielle Collins [13] 4-6 6-4 6-3
QF: Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-4
SF: Elena Rybakina [4] 1-6 7-5 7-6(5)
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2024)
| H2H: | Iga Swiatek (WR 1) | Aryna Sabalenka (WR 2) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Final (2023) | Champion (2021, 2023) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 42 | 38.2 |
| Return Points Won % | 48.8 | 44.7 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 47 | 44.7 |
| Break Point Saved % | 68.3 | 56.4 |
| Total Points Won % | 55.9 | 53.8 |
Sabalenka will need to step up her game on return if she wants to have any chance of winning this match as Swiatek has been the more efficient player this season.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
Swiatek has recovered well from Stuttgart disappointment as the world number one continues to prove why she is the favourite for Roland Garros glory once again this year.
Now Swiatek looks to complete her clay court collection of titles by claiming her first Madrid title.
Speaking ahead of the final Swiatek praised her performance in the semi-finals and spoke about the need to play against her rivals in the big finals.
“I’m happy with everything,” Swiatek told the WTA website.
“It was a pretty clean performance and really solid game from myself. I’m happy that we can play a final against the top players.
“It shows consistency. For sure it’s going to be a challenge, whoever it’s gonna be, and a tough match. I will be ready. I will focus on myself. Yeah, we’ll see.”
Next for Swiatek is defending champion Sabalenka who has shown resilience and determination in order to grind her way into a third Madrid final.
The world number two will look to prove that she has what it takes to beat any player at a big tournament as she looks to secure a second title of the season.
Ahead of the final Sabalenka spoke about being more aggressive against Swiatek and spoke about last year’s final against the Pole.
“I would say that that was the best match I ever played, especially on clay court,” Sabalenka told the WTA website about last year’s victory in the final.
“I think the level was just super high. It was clean, it was intense, powerful game. Yeah, I think that was the best final I ever played.
“I think that we are all improving, and we are all changing throughout the year, so I’m going to watch her matches and see if I have to adjust my strategy. But the main strategy for me is just to focus on myself and to stay aggressive and just trust my shots.”
Swiatek will aim to use depth and spin to neutralize Sabalenka’s aggressive play as the world number one looks to dictate the tempo of the rallies.
Meanwhile Sabalenka will aim to repeat what she did last year and be aggressive, denying Swiatek any opportunity to play on her terms.
This should be first strike tennis as both players will look to take the racket out of each other’s hands.
It should be a fascinating contest but Swiatek has more energy and confidence than she did last year which should make her favourite to win her first Madrid title.
Prediction: Swiatek in three sets.
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