By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Mirra Andreeva [9]
- H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1
INDIAN WELLS, USA – Aryna Sabalenka is aiming to end Mirra Andreeva’s winning streak and take home her first Indian Wells title when the two meet in the final.
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Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Mirra Andreeva [9] H2H & Match Fundamentals
World number one Aryna Sabalenka is back in form as she comprehensively gained her revenge over Madison Keys by only dropping one game on her way to a second Indian Wells title. Now Sabalenka aims to win her first title in California as she looks to send a big message ahead of the clay court season. Standing in her way is 17 year-old Mirra Andreeva who extended her winning streak to 11 matches by knocking out defending champion Iga Swiatek.
| Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Mirra Andreeva [9] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 4-1 |
| Indian Wells 2025 | Indian Wells, USA |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: $599,625/$1,127,500 |
| First on Stadium One (18:00 GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
Both players have been very impressive on their way to the final with Andreeva having the harder route to Sunday’s showdown.
Aryna Sabalenka [1] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: McCartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3
R3: Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2
R4: Sonay Kartal [LL] 6-1 6-2
QF: Liudmila Samsonova [24] 6-2 6-3
SF: Madison Keys [5] 6-0 6-1
Mirra Andreeva [9] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-4
R3: Clara Tauson [22] 6-3 6-0
R4: Elena Rybakina [7] 6-1 6-2
QF: Elina Svitolina [23] 7-5 6-3
SF: Iga Swiatek [2] 7-6(1) 1-6 6-3
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Last 52 Weeks)
| H2H: | Aryna Sabalenka (WR 1) | Mirra Andreeva (WR 11) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Final (2023) | R1 (2024) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 36.7 | 42.2 |
| Return Points Won % | 45.2 | 47.2 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 47.2 | 52.5 |
| Break Point Saved % | 62.2 | 53.1 |
| Total Points Won % | 53.7 | 53.1 |
Sabalenka will need to continue to be aggressive and proactive on serve against an efficient returner like Andreeva.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
The world number one is back in form after only winning one game in her demolition of Keys in order to reach a second Indian Wells final.
Now Sabalenka aims for a first title in California as she looks to send a big message to the rest of the field.
After her semi-final victory, Sabalenka admitted she was motivated by revenge for her Australian Open defeat to Keys a couple of months ago.
“Well, I needed this revenge badly,” Sabalenka explained to the WTA website.
“So I was really focused, and I think tactically I played really great tennis. I would say that today was a bit opposite. Like I played great at the beginning, and she kind of lost her rhythm and she couldn’t play her best tennis. I think that’s why the match went so fast.
“So at the Australian Open, I played really bad and she played great. It’s tennis. That Australian Open match was really heartbreaking for me and I really needed some time to recover after that. And if I would lose today again, it would get in my head and I didn’t want that to happen.
“I was really focused, so I was just really hungry to get this win against Madison.”
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is Andreeva who is the youngest Indian Wells finalist since 2001 after eliminating defending champion Swiatek.
Now the 17 year-old is looking to win a second consecutive WTA 1000 title and extend her winning streak to 12 matches.
Ahead of the final Andreeva spoke about trying to get revenge as she lost to Sabalenka twice in Australia earlier this year.
“The matches that we played this year didn’t really go my way,” Andreeva explained to the WTA website.
“Yeah, I can say she almost killed me, especially in Melbourne. I’m gonna try to take a revenge, because I still have nothing to lose, and I feel like the match is going to be probably entertaining. There is going to be a lot of, I think, a lot of winners, a lot of great points.”
Sabalenka will use the forehand to dominate the rallies as she will need to rush Andreeva’s decision-making if she is to have any chance of winning this match.
Meanwhile Andreeva will continue to serve big and use the backhand to neutralise Sabalenka’s baseline game.
Andreeva has improved a lot since Australia and will need to get off to a quick start in order to stamp her authority on the match.
However, Sabalenka is playing too well not to win the title in California in what should be an entertaining final.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
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