By Tony Fairbairn
- Carlos Alcaraz [2] v Daniil Medvedev [4]
- H2H: Alcaraz leads 3-2
INDIAN WELLS, USA – Daniil Medvedev is looking for redemption as he takes on defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a repeat from last year’s final in Indian Wells.
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Carlos Alcaraz [2] v Daniil Medvedev [4] H2H & Match Fundamentals
Carlos Alcaraz is back to his very best as he is one win away from winning his first title since Wimbledon. The Spaniard ended Jannik Sinner’s winning streak, handing the Italian his first defeat of the season as Alcaraz now looks to defend his title in California and send a real statement of intent to the rest of the tour. Standing in Alcaraz’s way is the player he beat in the final last year in the form of Daniil Medvedev who continued his impressive form by defeating Tommy Paul in the semi-finals.
| Carlos Alcaraz [2] v Daniil Medvedev [4] | H2H: Alcaraz leads 3-2 |
| Indian Wells 2024 | Indian Wells, USA |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: $585,000/$1,100,000 |
| Second on Stadium One (Not before 21:00 GMT) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
Alcaraz has overcome a tricky draw in style having only dropped sets to Matteo Arnaldi and the in-form Sinner so far while Medvedev has had a slightly easier path to the final but survived a real scare against Sebastian Korda earlier in the tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz [2] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: Matteo Arnaldi 6-7(5) 6-1 6-0
R3: Felix Auger-Aliassime [31] 6-2 6-3
R4: Fabian Maroszan 6-3 6-3
QF: Alexander Zverev [6] 6-3 6-1
SF: Jannik Sinner [3] 1-6 6-3 6-2
Daniil Medvedev [4] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-3
R3: Sebastian Korda [29] 6-4 5-7 6-3
R4: Grigor Dimitrov [13] 6-4 6-4
QF: Holger Rune [7] 7-5 6-4
SF: Tommy Paul [17] 1-6 7-6(3) 6-2
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2024)
| H2H: | Carlos Alcaraz (WR 2) | Daniil Medvedev (WR 4) |
| Tournament Previous Best | Champion (2022) | Final (2022) |
| 1st Serve % | 67.4 | 61.7 |
| Service Games Won % | 86.6 | 82.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 52.8 | 64.4 |
| 2nd Serve Return Points Won % | 55.7 | 51.2 |
| Break Points Converted % | 41.4 | 42 |
Both players have been equally as efficient on return but it’s Alcaraz who has been more consistent on serve ahead of this blockbuster final.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
Alcaraz has rediscovered his form in California with the Spaniard ending Sinner’s recent winning streak proving that he shouldn’t be underestimated.
Now the Spaniard will look to defend his Indian Wells title after maintaining his world number two ranking as he aims to win his first title since Wimbledon.
After his semi-final victory Alcaraz praised his mental strength as he is into a second consecutive final at Indian Wells.
“I stayed strong mentally,” Alcaraz told the ATP website.
“I think that’s a really important part in this game. You have to be strong mentally if you want to overcome these kind of matches, a set down against someone that’s playing an unbelievable game. I’m really happy with the things that I’ve done after that.
“I changed my style a little bit, I changed my game a little bit and I think it worked very well. I’m really happy to beat Jannik and be in the final again.”
In the final Alcaraz will face Medvedev in a repeat of last year’s final as the world number four has shown resilience and dominance to show why he is one of the most consistent hard court players on the tour.
Now Medvedev will look to back up his consistent performances with a big hard court title after falling short at the Australian Open.
After his semi-final win Medvedev admitted it was a tough match and is looking forward to his final rematch with Alcaraz.
“It was very tough. When it’s evening and cold here, it’s very tough to go through the serve,” Medvedev explained to the ATP website.
“I understood that, and he played an unbelievable first set. So I was like, OK, if I want to win I just have to try to do a little bit better to find the shot that’s going to make him in trouble. I found some, especially on my serve. Then the match started to be a long fight. Even in the third set, it was 6-2, but it was very, very long games and I think it was a long set. So I’m really happy to be able to pull this out.
“I saw Carlos today, he was playing pretty well, second and third set especially. I know what happened last year so I’m going to try my best to try to turn this around, to play better, to play stronger, more on the lines, hit more aces, stuff like this. Hopefully I will be able to do it. I will recover and get ready for the fight tomorrow.”
Alcaraz will look to use depth to keep Medvedev behind the baseline while using dropshots to make the fourth seed uncomfortable at the net.
Meanwhile Medvedev will aim to take shots inside the baseline and be aggressive as he aims to extend the rallies, wearing out the Spaniard.
This should be another big battle between two confident players on this surface with Alcaraz heading into this match as slight favourite in what should be a close and entertaining final.
Prediction: Alcaraz in three sets.
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