By Tony Fairbairn
- Iga Swiatek [2] v Madison Keys [19]
- Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Paula Badosa [11]
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – Iga Swiatek and Madison Key will hope to continue their red hot form as they battle for a place in their first Australian Open final.
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Iga Swiatek [2] v Madison Keys [19] | H2H: Swiatek leads 4-1
Heading into this year’s Australian Open, Iga Swiatek’s previous form in Melbourne had a lot left to be desired but the Pole has stepped up her game as she has only dropped a combined total of 14 games over her five matches played. Now Swiatek will hope to continue her sizzling form as she bids for a first Australian Open final of her career. Standing in Swiatek’s way is another in-form player in Madison Keys who is now on a ten match winning streak after reaching her third Australian Open semi-final with victory over Elina Svitolina.
H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Iga Swiatek [2] v Madison Keys [19] | H2H: Swiatek leads 4-1 |
| Australian Open 2025 | Melbourne, Australia |
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It’s a first Australian Open semi-final for Swiatek after her dominant run in Melbourne continued with a dominant win over Emma Navarro.
Although Melbourne hasn’t been a historically successful location for Swiatek, the Pole is keen to put that right this year and is now two wins away from her fifth Grand Slam title.
Next up for Swiatek is Keys who has also been in form recently as she has backed up her Adelaide title by reaching a third Australian Open semi-final.
The American would love nothing more than to translate her recent form into a milestone achievement as she looks to reach a first Australian Open final and a second Grand Slam final.
Ahead of the semi-finals, Swiatek admitted she is happy that she is more ruthless at the Australian Open and spoke about her past form in Melbourne.
“On the tennis court you kind of need to be ruthless,” Swiatek told the WTA website.
“[but] ‘ruthless’ usually means something negative as well. But I think for me, just focusing on myself and having the same kind of attitude no matter what the score is important. This is what I base my strength on and my consistency and the way I just continue to do the good things I do on court.
“Maybe looks ruthless, but it’s not my goal to do that. I just want to win more and more games, and this is the effect I got for the past matches. Honestly, I wasn’t going so deep in Grand Slams so much except Roland Garros. For sure now I’m happy that I’m kind of playing my level here. Last year my journey here finished at fourth and third round, so for sure I feel more confident now.”
Meanwhile Keys reflected on a ‘great era of tennis’ and admitted she is enjoying herself more than ever before.
“But I think it’s a really great era of tennis right now because you can still be playing some of your best tennis as 30 is approaching and even past that,” Keys told the Australian Open website.
“I mean, even today Elina was playing fantastic tennis. She was another one that I played juniors with her, and we both kind of went pro really early. There’s just so many players now that into their 30s they’re playing some really great tennis. I think it’s really nice to see all of these people that I played juniors with that we’re still out here.
“I think if I could go back, I would just say to try to enjoy it a little bit more and maybe try not to put as much pressure on yourself that it had to be right now. I think there’s been a handful of times in my career where it kind of felt like if it didn’t happen right now, would it ever happen?
“I think I’m, one, getting to the point where I’m starting to appreciate my career for what it has been, and it doesn’t have to have a Grand Slam in order for me to look at it and say, I’ve done a really good job, and I’ve really left everything out there.”
Swiatek will use the forehand to dominate the points and make Keys run into uncomfortable positions on the court.
Meanwhile Keys will need to continue being aggressive on serve in order to neutralise Swiatek’s flawless returning.
Keys will give Swiatek a tough test but the slower night time conditions suit the world number two more and the Pole should ease into a first Australian Open final.
Prediction: Swiatek in straight sets.
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Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Paula Badosa [11] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 5-2
Aryna Sabalenka’s title defence was under serious threat during her three set win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. However the world number one did what all champions do and that’s find a way to win as she targets a third consecutive title at the Australian Open with Sabalenka feeling there is still a lot more left to give in Melbourne. Standing in Sabalenka’s way of another Australian Open final is Paula Badosa after the Spaniard produced an inspired performance to knock out third seed Coco Gauff and reach her first semi-final in Melbourne.
H2H & Match Fundamentals
| Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Paula Badosa [11] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 5-2 |
| Australian Open 2025 | Melbourne, Australia |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: A$1,100,000 |
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Sabalenka’s dream of the Australian Open hat-trick lives on but only just after a tough test against Pavlyuchenkova in the last eight.
The world number one has struggled with her serving and conditions throughout the tournament but will be hoping that she can save her best tennis for when it matters the most with history on the line.
Next up for Sabalenka is Badosa who after nearly quitting the sport a year ago is back into a Grand Slam quarter-final.
Now the Spaniard will be hoping to continue her momentum as she seeks a first Grand Slam final of her career.
After her quarter-final win, Sabalenka admitted conditions were difficult and tried to look on the positives on having a tough match before the semi-finals.
“Honestly I was just praying, trying to put the ball back in the court in these tough conditions,” Sabalenka told the Australian Open website.
“It was very difficult to play. She played amazing tennis, very aggressive, I’m just super happy I was somehow magically able to win this match. Sometimes it’s maybe good to have these tough battles, to go through it, to be tougher for the last stages of the tournament.
“I wish I could win this match in straight sets, but I’m happy to be through.”
Meanwhile Badosa admitted reaching the semi-finals feels extra special considering she nearly retired from the sport a year ago.
“A year ago, I was here with my back [injury] that I didn’t know if I had to retire from this sport, and now I’m here, playing the best in the world,” Badosa told the WTA website.
“I won today, I’m in the semifinals, and I never would think that a year later, I would be here. Today I came in, and I wanted to play my best game, and I think I did it. Coco, at the beginning, she was playing insane tennis, but I’m super proud of the level I gave today.
“The last two times [the two played] she brought her level very high, even better when she was down. So I was quite expecting that from her side, especially in the 5-2, because I didn’t do anything wrong. She just played unreal. 5-2 I was a little bit nervous. But the 5-4 up I tried to stay calm and to focus a little bit on my serve. I know she didn’t break me much. Just two times in the match. I’m, like, if you serve well, you’re going to have your chances here. Just try to focus on yourself, toss the ball correctly, like do all the techniques, routines we have.
“That’s what I did. I stopped thinking a little bit of Coco and the match and the entire atmosphere, and I was with myself.”
Sabalenka will aim to be consistent on serve as she looks to take the forehand early and force Badosa to play passively.
Meanwhile Badosa will look to get the first strike in on return as she will use the backhand to create angles on the court.
Badosa’s current form and Sabalenka’s inconsistencies means the Spaniard should make a good start to the match but the world number one should use her experience to come through in three tight sets.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
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