By Tony Fairbairn
- Aryna Sabalenka [5] v Elena Rybakina [22]
- H2H: Sabalenka leads 3-0
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – Aryna Sabalenka looks to capture her first Grand Slam singles title at the Australian Open when she takes on Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open final.
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Aryna Sabalenka [5] v Elena Rybakina [22] H2H & Match Fundamentals
Aryna Sabalenka has won all 20 sets that she has won so far in 2023 with her latest win over Magda Linette showing why the fifth seed now has the mental stability and controlled power to compete for Grand Slam titles. Now Sabalenka looks to breakthrough and win her first Grand Slam singles title that she has craved for so long. Standing in Sabalenka’s way is Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina with the Kazakh’s big serving and consistent power seeing her cruise past former Grand Slam champions Iga Swiatek, Jelena Ostapenko and Victoria Azarenka. Now Rybakina looks for her second Grand Slam title in the space of six months.
| Aryna Sabalenka [5] v Elena Rybakina [22] | H2H: Sabalenka leads 3-0 |
| Australian Open 2023 | Melbourne, Australia |
| Hard (O) | Prize Money: $1,625,000/$2,975,000 |
| Third on Rod Laver Arena (Not before 08:30 GMT) | Discovery+ Add-on via Amazon Prime
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Sabalenka has won on all three occasions the two players have faced each other however every match has gone to three sets.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (2023)
| H2H: | Aryna Sabalenka (WR 5) | Elena Rybakina (WR 25) |
| Tournament Previous Best | R4 (2021, 2022) | R3 (2020) |
| 1st Serve Return Points Won % | 36.1 | 33.2 |
| Return Points Won % | 46 | 41.3 |
| Break Point Conversion % | 45.2 | 40.8 |
| Break Point Saved % | 80 | 56.1 |
| Total Points Won % | 55.9 | 53.3 |
Rybakina will need to increase her level on return as she is taking on the clutch and efficient serving of Sabalenka.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
Sabalenka’s win over Linette showed that mentally and tactically, the Belarusian has never been more ready to win a Grand Slam singles title. Now Sabalenka looks to cap off an incredible start to the season with a Grand Slam title and complete her dominant form in Melbourne by beating a Grand Slam champion.
After her semi-final victory Sabalenka spoke about trying to be less emotional on court as she looks to enhance her emotions in a more positive way this season.
“I was trying to [do] less screaming after bad points or errors. I was just trying to hold myself, stay calm, just think about the next point,” Sabalenka told the WTA website.
“Actually, I’m not that boring, I think. I’m still screaming ‘C’mon’ and all that stuff. I don’t think it’s that boring to watch me. I hope so. Just less negative emotions. [After the first game,] probably before I would start screaming on everybody, feeling bad, starting to overhit balls. Today I was, like, OK, that’s happened, that’s fine. I’ll just keep working, keep trying, and I think I will find my rhythm.
“On the pre-season I spoke to my psychologist saying, ‘Listen, I feel like I have to deal with that by myself, because every time hoping that someone will fix my problem, it’s not fixing my problem. I just have to take this responsibility and I just have to deal with that.’ Yeah, I’m not working with psychologist any more. I’m my psychologist.”
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is Rybakina who has hit form at the right time as she looks to claim a second Grand Slam title in the space of six months. Having beaten three former Grand Slam champions and played on all types of courts and conditions, Rybakina has even more belief that she can be a Grand Slam champion again.
After her semi-final win Rybakina told the media that adapting to the slower conditions was the key to victory.
“I couldn’t get free points on my serve that easy like during the day when I played the matches. I knew that I need just to adjust,” Rybakina told the WTA website.
“I was doing the correct things. It was just a matter to be more focused on these important moments. In the end, I just was playing point by point no matter score. Everything went well.”
Sabalenka will look to continue to serve well and use the wide serve in particular to force Rybakina out of position in order to get the first strike in. Rybakina will look to neutralise the power of the Belarusian by making deep returns and putting the fifth seed under pressure.
The first shot after the serve is going to be the key to both players maintaining control of the rallies.
The tennis balls will be the big losers of this match but in terms of the contest, Rybakina’s experience gives a slight edge heading into a contest that is going to be full of highs and lows as both look to become Australian Open champion for the first time.
Prediction: Rybakina in three sets.
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