- Daniil Medvedev [2] v Rafael Nadal [6]
- H2H: Nadal leads 3-1
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA β History beckons in the menβs singles final at the Australian Open with Rafael Nadal looking for a record-breaking 21st grand slam singles title while Daniil Medvedev looks to become the first male player in the open era to win his second grand slam title straight after winning his first.
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Daniil Medvedev [2] v Rafael Nadal [6] H2H & Match Fundamentals
Rafael Nadal has had to work hard in the last two rounds but now stands one win away from a record-breaking 21st grand slam singles title a feat that would put him ahead of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the all-time list. As for Daniil Medvedev, the Russian has survived the ultimate endurance test to be one win away from winning his second grand slam title straight after winning his first, a feat not male singles player has achieved in the open era.
Daniil Medvedev [2] v Rafael Nadal [6] Β |
H2H: Nadal leads 3-1 |
Australian Open |
Melbourne, Australia |
Hard (O) |
Prize Money: $1,575,000/$2,875,000 |
Rod Laver Arena at 08:30 GMT |
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Nadal comfortably leads their head-to-head with one of those meetings being a five set victory in the 2019 US Open final. However Medvedev won their last meeting in 2020 at the Nitto ATP Finals.
Tale of the Tape β Key Stats (2022 – Hard)
H2H: |
Daniil Medvedev (WR 2) |
Rafael Nadal (WR 5) |
Tournament Previous Best |
Final (2021) |
Winner (2009) |
1st Serve % |
66.2 |
64.7 |
Service Games Won % |
94.1 |
93.1 |
Break Points Saved % |
78.8 |
70 |
2nd Serve Return Points Won % |
49.2 |
51.8 |
Break Points Converted % |
38.6 |
39.1 |
Medvedev has the statistical edge on his serve while Nadal has the edge on return with both players being efficient and effective on big points. The key area for Nadal to have any chance is being effective on break point opportunities as the Russian is deadly in saving break points on his serve.
Playing Styles and Prediction
US Open champion Daniil Medvedev entered the Australian Open as favourite after Novak Djokovicβs withdrawal but the Russian has had to work hard to reach the final.
Four set victories over Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy and Stefanos Tsitsipas as well as a five set battle against Felix Auger-Aliassime has been the ultimate test of endurance and character for Medvedev. But those matches are the type that makes grand slam champions who they are and the Russianβs unique defensive skillset has seen his six previous opponents fail to break down Medvedevβs game physically and mentally.
Ahead of the match against Nadal on Sunday, Medvedev said he knows what heβs capable of and is expecting a physical battle against one of sports great champions, βI really don’t have much pressure. I know what I’m capable of when I’m playing well. I know that I can beat anybody,β Medvedev told the ATP website.
βThe second round against Nick [Kyrgios] was a tight one. But it gave me a lot of confidence in my own power, in my own tennis. I know (after the US Open) that I’m capable of winning seven matches in a row and the last one against Novak was epic. So, I knew before this tournament that it is possible. That is what I’m trying to prove.
β[It will probably be a] physical match. Rafa likes to drag people into long rallies. I like it too. I think it is going to be a great battle. But again, I remember last year’s final in Australia, even if it was against a different opponent. I’m going to try to be more ready, more focused, fighting more, and give it everything I have in terms of tennis, both physically and mentally.β
If Medvedev is to be the first male singles player in the open era to win his second grand slam title straight after winning his first then he has to get through 20-time grand slam champion Rafael Nadal first who is after his own records in Melbourne.
The Spaniard is looking for a record-breaking 21st grand slam title and his emotions after a four set triumph over Matteo Berrettini shows how much he wants this especially after all the injuries Nadal has suffered over the last 12 months.
Speaking on Friday, Nadal has said how unexpected this run has been and reflecting on the journey towards a potential 21st grand slam title, βIt’s surprising for me to be able to play at the level that I am playing. Just competing and playing tennis at this high level again, facing the most important players of the world, it’s unbelievable,β Nadal admitted to the ATP Website.
βFor me, it’s something completely unexpected, so I am super happy. I always try my best. My goal now is to win. [But] I am taking things in a little bit of a different way now. Of course, with the competitive spirit that I have, I can’t go against that. It’s my personal DNA. But in some ways, [just to] be able to have the chance to compete at this level, it’s positive energy for me to keep going, because being very honest, for me it is much more important to have the chance to play tennis than win number 21.β
Nadal will have to keep the points short as the longer this match goes on, the more it favours the Russian. However the Spaniard does have the tactical advantage which should help winning the early mini-battles.
Medvedev will have to create the space on court through tight angles and continue to extend the rallies. So far Nadalβs long matches have been against players whoβs level has dipped or have been fatigued but thatβs completely the opposite with Medvedev who seems to get better the longer it goes on.
It will be a historic evening on Saturday with so much on the line and although Nadal has the tactical advantage it should be Medvedevβs endurance that prevails here.
Prediction: Medvedev in five sets. Β Β
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