By Tony Fairbairn
- Carlos Alcaraz [2] v Lorenzo Musetti [13]
- H2H: Alcaraz leads 3-1
MONTE-CARLO, MONACO – Carlos Alcaraz will take on Lorenzo Musetti in a highly anticipated Monte-Carlo final with the winner taking home their first Monaco title.
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Carlos Alcaraz [2] v Lorenzo Musetti [13] H2H & Match Fundamentals
A tight win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina once again proved that Carlos Alcaraz will be the man to beat over this clay court season. Now the Roland Garros champion seeks to win his first title in Monaco and bids to reclaim his world number two spot in the world rankings. Standing in Alcaraz’s way is Lorenzo Musetti who is into his first Masters 1000 final after edging out Alex De Minaur in a last set tiebreak on an emotional occasion for the Italian.
| Carlos Alcaraz [2] v Lorenzo Musetti [13] | H2H: Alcaraz leads 3-1 |
| ATP Monte-Carlo 2025 | Monte-Carlo, Monaco |
| Clay (O) | Prize Money: €516,925/€946,610 |
| First on Court Rainier III (11:00 BST) | Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required |
Both players have had a tough route to the final but it’s Musetti who has spent longer on court with four of his five matches going to three sets.
Carlos Alcaraz [2] route to the final
R1: BYE
R2: Francisco Cerundolo 3-6 6-0 6-1
R3: Daniel Altmaier [Q] 6-3 6-1
QF: Arthur Fils [20] 4-6 7-5 6-3
SF: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6(2) 6-4
Lorenzo Musetti [13] route to the final
R1: Yunchaokete Bu [Q] 4-6 7-5 6-3
R2: Jiri Lehecka 1-6 7-5 6-2
R3: Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-3
QF: Stefanos Tsitsipas [6] 1-6 6-3 6-4
SF: Alex De Minaur [8] 1-6 6-4 7-6(4)
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Last 52 Weeks)
| H2H: | Carlos Alcaraz (WR 3) | Lorenzo Musetti (WR 16) |
| Tournament Previous Best | R1 (2022) | Quarter-Final (2023) |
| 1st Serve % | 64.2 | 65.7 |
| Service Games Won % | 84.9 | 80.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64.3 | 59.5 |
| 2nd Serve Return Points Won % | 54.5 | 52.3 |
| Break Points Converted % | 43.6 | 37.2 |
Alcaraz will continue to be clinical on return while Musetti will need to improve his efficiency on serve if he wants to have any chance of winning this match.
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Playing Styles and Prediction
A first Monte-Carlo final for Alcaraz after a hard-fought week has now earned his first Masters 1000 final in almost a year.
The Spaniard has already overtaken Jannik Sinner in the race rankings and now Alcaraz has his sights set on reclaiming the world number two ranking.
After his semi-final win, Alcaraz had admitted the 13 month absence to be in a Masters 1000 final has been way to long.
“It’s been a long time,” Alcaraz stated to the ATP website.
“I just had to be patient and believe that this moment was going to come again. Sometimes the people are not patient, they want me to make the final in every tournament. I’m really happy to give them the chance to watch one of my finals again.
“The most important thing is that I’m feeling great physically.”
Next up for Alcaraz is Musetti who defeated the Spaniard to win his maiden ATP 500 title in Hamburg a few years ago.
Now the Italian is into his first Masters 1000 final and is looking to repeat a similar trick in what has been an emotional week for Musetti.
Reflecting on his semi-final, Musetti admitted it was a tough match against De Minaur and spoke about how important confidence is in tennis.
“I always struggle to start and find a rhythm but today Alex was playing really solid and the conditions were hard. It was slow today with the rain and it was not easy to break through the Alex wall. I started to be more patient and that was the key,” Musetti explained to the ATP website.
“The confidence is something that you have to experience to believe. It is something really remarkable, sharing these beautiful moments with my friends and family. It is my home and I feel at home.”
Alcaraz will use the forehand to make the Italian move and will aim to make a quick start to unsettle Musetti.
Meanwhile Musetti will need to be aggressive on serve and will aim to take Alcaraz’s legs away through long rallies.
This will be a thrilling final with ups and downs expected but if Alcaraz can reach near his peak level then he should prove too strong for the Italian.
Prediction: Alcaraz in three sets.
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